导师姓名：闫循华
中文题目：理念、感知、美国对朝政策:奥巴马政府与特朗普政府之比较分析
英文题目：Beliefs, Perceptions, and U.S. Foreign Policy Toward North Korea: A Comparative Study of the Obama Administration and the Trump Administration
摘要
奥巴马政府时期，美国对朝核问题采取了“战略忍耐”政策，意味着美国将等待朝鲜主动作出无核化决定。但特朗普总统上台后，美国对朝鲜的政策转变为“极限施压与接触”。基于此，本文致力于研究美国对朝政策转变背后的机制和原因。本文的研究问题是：在朝核问题上，为什么奥巴马政府采取“战略忍耐”政策，而特朗普政府将其转变为“极限施压和接触”？
在国际关系领域中，新古典现实主义理论认为，外交政策分析既要关注外部环境因素，也要关注国家内部因素对外交政策所起的作用。基于这一理论框架，本文认为，在东亚环境处于相对稳定的状态下，面对朝鲜日益增长的核威胁，奥巴马政府和特朗普政府政策制定者们不同的外交理念以及他们对朝核问题的不同认知，使得两届政府采取了不同的对朝政策。奥巴马政府时期，美国政策制定者具有全球主义的外交政策理念，他们把维护美国主导的自由国际秩序、推进全球自由化进程和促进多边主义放在议程首要位置。受这种理念的影响，他们忽视了朝核威胁，还形成三种一厢情愿的想法：朝鲜将主动进行去核化进程、朝鲜政权会主动坍塌、中国将负责解决朝核问题。因此，奥巴马政府的决策者对朝核威胁采取了消极回应，形成“战略忍耐”政策。相比之下，特朗普政府的决策者持有民族主义的外交政策理念。对他们来说，维护国家利益比维护自由国际秩序、推动全球自由化进程以及多边主义更为重要。他们合理地审视了朝核威胁，及时着手解决这一问题，并且摒弃了奥巴马时期一厢情愿的想法。因此，他们对朝核威胁采取了积极的回应，促成“极限施压与接触”政策的形成。
关键词：理念，感知，美国对朝政策，特朗普政府，奥巴马政府
Abstract
The Obama administration had employed strategic patience policy toward North Korean nuclear problem, which means that the United States would wait until North Korea collapse or makes a sincere effort to denuclearize. But after President Donald Trump came to the stage, the U.S. policy toward North Korea has been changed to maximum pressure and engagement. This work focuses on the mechanism behind the changed policy toward North Korea in the Trump administration through the lens of neoclassical realism, with the research question: why is there a transition in the U.S. policy toward North Korean nuclear issue from strategic patience in the Obama administration to maximum pressure and engagement in the Trump administration?
Under the framework of neoclassical realism, which attaches importance to both external and internal factors in analyzing foreign policy, this study finds that the change of U.S. North Korean policy to maximum pressure and engagement in the Trump administration from Obama’s strategic patience is a result of both international constraints—the increasing threat from North Korea with China and other East Asian countries staying in a relatively stable state—and U.S. policymakers’ different foreign policy beliefs and perceptions. With a globalist foreign policy belief, policymakers in the Obama administration put the maintenance of the U.S.-dominated international order, the advancement of liberal agendas, and the promotion of multilateralism as top priorities. Against this background, they downplayed the threat from North Korea and developed three wishful thoughts: North Korea would renounce its nuclear program, North Korea would implode itself, and China is responsible for the North Korean nuclear problem. Consequently, the policymakers in the Obama administration took a passive approach to North Korea’s nuclear threat, which is the essence of the strategic patience policy. In contrast, the policymakers in the Trump administration held a nationalist foreign policy belief, for whom advancing U.S. national interest outweighs maintaining a liberal international order and promoting liberal agendas and multilateralism. They properly estimated the North Korean threat, set about addressing the nuclear issue, and abandoned wishful thoughts. Consequently, they took an active approach to the nuclear threat, which constitutes the rationale of the maximum pressure and engagement policy.
Key Words: Belief, Perception, U.S. North Korean Policy, the Trump administration, the Obama administration
[2] 李嘉欣
导师：陈崛斌
中文题目：美国的负向党派归属:历史发展以及对政 治行为的影响
英文题目：Negative Partisanship in the United States: Historical Development and Influence on Political Behavior
摘要
在过去的六十多年中,美国的选民们目睹了大量增长的负面情绪以及选民政党属性 的回归。学界研究表明负面党派归属是一个单独存在的概念,但并未对其性质及其 在美国选举政治中扮演了何种角色进行剖析。近期的学术作品轻度关注了这一概 念,立足点主要是美国政治的全国化。本文对负面党派归属这一概念及其历史发展 沿革按照时间顺序进行全面的综述,并为这一概念搭建理论化定义框架。本文利用 美国国家选举研究数据进行分析,证实了选民对于敌对党派的评价在近几十年间显 著下滑;选民对于民主、共和两党的评价整体走低,均于 2016 年到达最低点。与此 同时,本文证实了轻度党派认同者数量整体下降、高度党派认同者整体数量上升, 且独立选民数量有所上升。最后,民主党与共和党的拥护者都逐渐降低了对敌对党 派的评分。
Abstract
In the past six decades, the United States electorate has witnessed increasing political negativity with a context of resurgent partisanship. Previous scholarship identified negative partisan identification without substantiation of its nature and how it functions in the American electorate. Recent work put slight emphasis on negative partisanship and discussed mostly the nationalization of American state politics. This paper hereby comprehensively reviews existing academic work on the negative partisanship, presents the historical development of its concept in a chronological fashion, and builds a new definitional framework. Using data retrieved from American National Election Studies, this paper quantitatively confirms that in the U.S., feeling toward one’s own and opposing party has been on the decline with that toward the disliked party far more significant. Feeling towards two major parties has been overall going down, both reaching the lowest in 2016. Both findings two concur with declining rate of weak partisan identifiers, increasing independent voters, and resurgent strong identifiers. Lastly, both democratic identifiers and Republican identifiers gradually rated their respective opposing party on a decreasing scale.
[3] 徐逸逖
导师：谢韬
中文题目：美国国会与对华政策:以国会-行政部门中国委员会为例
英文题目：Congress and China Policy: The Case of the CECC
摘要
本文的研究对象是美国国会-行政部门中国委员会。该委员会于 2000 年成立, 目的是监督中国的人权与法治实践,并向总统和国会提交年度报告。委员会超越 党派,向国会和行政层同时负责,承担了人权问题研究和政策建议的职责。
本文首先从委员会的成员构成、议题选择、听证会及年度报告几方面入手, 通过历史数据展现了该委员会开展工作的特征,并分析了其对华立场和行事模式。
本文的第二部分聚焦于美国对华人权战略体系中该中国委员会与其他参与者之间的互动情况。这些参与者主要包括美国行政部门、国会和各类媒体。笔者首先分析了委员会与行政层间的互动模式,总结出二者之间的权力关系。笔者发现,该委员会的国会背景和先天能量不足使得其在与行政部门的互动中处于了弱势。笔者还对比了其与美国国务院工作的异同,发现由于二者职责相似,该委员会的工作成果更加难以得到行政部门的重视。
本文的第三部分重点关注了该委员会与媒体、公众之间的互动,尤其是在政 治议程设置上委员会与媒体间的内生性问题。笔者发现,该委员会无论在议题选 择还是报告撰写上都广泛受到了媒体报道的影响。反之,委员会对原始报道的加 工也为媒体提供了进一步的素材。在这一过程中,媒体担任了主导方,双方也基于对规则的认可而达成了精妙的平衡。
基于上述特征,笔者认为该中国委员会在中美关系中扮演的角色有限。其缺
陷在于其运作受制于不断变化的政治环境,且其权限较弱,无法对国会和行政层施加有效影响。此外,随着现实主义逐渐占据主流,美国人权外交手段式微,此类人权机构的地位愈显尴尬。因此,在目前形势下,过分强调中国委员会这种特定历史时期产物的作用是没有必要的。
自委员会成立以来的 17 年间,世界局势风云变幻。本研究对于了解美国对 华人权外交有着现实的启示意义。本文的亮点在于对该委员会进行剖析的同时, 也强调了美国行政部门、总统、国会、各类媒体、人权组织在此过程中的参与。 因此,本文并不局限于对该委员会自身特征的挖掘,而是在此基础上展现给读者 美国对华人权外交的全貌。
【关键词】 国会-行政部门中国委员会 中国政策 人权外交 中美关系
Abstract
This thesis studies the mechanism of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) which was created in 2000 to monitor human rights and rule of law in China and which submits an annual report to the President and Congress. A bipartisan commission, it is held accountable to both Congress and the Executive Branch and assumes the responsibility of conducting researches and providing policy recommendations.
The first part of the paper is an introduction to the basic information of the CECC with a specific focus on the CECC’s commissioners, selection of topics, hearings and annual reports. The paper then analyzes the position of the CECC and patterns of its operation by comparing historical data, examining the contents of the hearings and extracting the main features of its annual reports.
The second part focuses on the interaction between the CECC and other participants in the U.S. human rights work toward China, including the Executive Branch, the President, Congress and the mass media. First, I summarize the interactive process reveals the power relations between the CECC and the Executive Branch. It is found that the CECC is in a weaker position in this process due to its congressional background and narrow scope of authority. In addition, the human rights reports of the CECC and that of the State Department are compared. It is found that the State Department has assumed similar responsibilities, making it more difficult for the CECC to have its work valued in the Executive Branch.
In addition, this paper highlights the interaction between the CECC and the media, especially the symbiotic relationship between them. The CECC has been tremendously influenced by the media in terms of topic selection and report writing while the media rely on the CECC’s findings for further reporting. In this process, the media plays a leading role since the original news coverages on China's human rights situation are setting the CECC’s agenda and also shaping its position on various issues. As a result, the two sides manage to reach a delicate balance by observing the political rules.
Based on the above analysis, it is believed that the CECC has a limited impact on
U.S.-China relations. Its operation is constrained by the changing political environment, and it is too weak to exert influence on Congress and Executive Branch. In addition, with the Administration embracing realpolitik, human rights diplomacy has gradually lost ground in the United States. As the CECC was the creation in a particular historical circumstance, it is not necessary to overemphasize its role at present.
Since the establishment of the CECC, the world has undergone dramatic changes and U.S.-China relations have become one of the most important bilateral relations in the world today. Therefore, this paper goes beyond a simple analysis of the characteristics of the CECC and attempts to provide some insights for the reader to better understand the dynamics of U.S. human rights diplomacy toward China. And the highlight of this paper is the depiction of the participation of all the parties involved in the policy-making process toward China, including the Executive Branch, the President, Congress, the Media and human rights organizations.
【Keywords】 Congressional-Executive Commission on China China Policy Human Rights Diplomacy U.S.-China Relations
[4] 宋子丰
导师：谢韬
中文题目：总统与国会在贸易问题上的博弈: 以特朗普政府的贸易政策为例
英文题目：Congressional-presidential Struggle over Foreign Trade: A Case Study of the Trump Administration
摘要
2018 年美国总统特朗普发起了一系列贸易保护主义措施,提高商品进口关 税,发动中美贸易战,一些盟友也卷入与美国的贸易冲突。依据美国宪法,“国 会有权规定并征收税金、捐税、关税和其它赋税,用以偿付国债并为合众国的共 同防御和全民福利提供经费”。既然国会享有规定贸易关税相关的权力,为什么 这一次总统似乎成为了贸易战背后的主要推手、加征关税的决定者?特朗普的贸 易保护措施与共和党一贯的自由贸易主张是完全背离的。向来倾向自由贸易的共 和党 2018 年还是国会的多数党,为什么对这样一位违反常规的共和党总统,共 和党和国会任其肆意为之?
本文试图从三个方面解释国会不干涉特朗普贸易战的原因:一,国会贸易授 权;二,党派贸易倾向;三,党派忠诚与惩罚。研究结果发现:首先,自上世纪 三十年代以来,国会在贸易问题上,对总统逐渐授权,为总统就贸易相关问题采 取单边措施提供了一定的法律基础。其次,从历史贸易倾向看,民主党 1970 年 来逐渐走向反对自由贸易的立场,共和党逐渐走向支持自由贸易的立场,特朗普 开始竞选总统后,共和党人的贸易立场似乎发生转向。国会两党现在都不是强烈 支持自由贸易,给特朗普的贸易保护行为提供了一定的支持。最后,共和党人的 党派忠诚也起到了一定的作用。一些共和党人认为,长期来看,特朗普的措施将 有利于实现更加公平的贸易,给美国带来好处。其他一些共和党人认为自己选区 的选民目前并没有受到严重影响,所以也并不热心去挑战属于自己党派的总统。 值得注意地是,极少数共和党议员因为不支持特朗普,在中期选举中失败,受到 了“不忠诚”的惩罚。
2018 年的中美贸易战引起了全世界的广泛关注与担忧。本文试图分析美国 国内总统和国会在这一次重要争端中的博弈,理解国会不干涉特朗普的原因。学 界目前直接分析这一问题的文章著作十分缺乏。本文通过分析这一问题,进一步 揭示了近年来共和党党内的深刻变化,这对理解和把握当前美国国内政治生态变 化有一定的借鉴意义。
关键词:贸易战、总统、国会、党派忠诚
Abstract
The year of 2018 has witnessed Donald Trump as an anti-free trade President, launched a trade war with China and set higher tariffs even towards allies. The Constitution grants Congress the power “to lay and collect taxes, duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States”. Since when has the decision over tariff become the US president’s own responsibility? Why didn’t Congress intervene in President Trump’s waging of trade war? Trump’s protectionist trade approach is much against the Republican’s free trade tradition. While the Republican-controlled Congress has the constitutional power over tariff, till now it has almost done nothing. Why didn’t the Republican-controlled Congress invalidate the President’s unorthodoxy orders?
This study will try to probe into Congress’s inaction from three aspects, namely
(1) Congressional delegation of trade powers, (2) changing partisan divide on trade, and (3) party loyalty to Trump. The study firstly finds that Congress’s delegation of trade powers over the years has actually laid a legal basis for the President’s legitimacy on trade-related issues. Reflecting historically on the partisan inclinations on trade, the paper also finds most Republicans have changed drastically on their attitudes on trade since Trump’s election campaign. While the Democrats remain little changed on their anti-trade positions, the GOP now turns out more negative on free trade. Now neither party in Congress strongly advocate free trade. This is the second important reason for Congress’ s inaction in Trump’s recent protectionist actions. Moreover, loyalty plays an important role in understanding Congress’ inaction. From the ideological perspective, some Republicans believe Trump’s current trade preference will benefit America in the long term, and some even converted their beliefs on free trade to protectionism. From the constituency perspective, some Republicans remain silent as Trump remains very popular among his voters and the impacts of high tariffs haven’t hurt their constituents yet. Notably, those who voice against Trump are very likely to be punished, suffering from loss in primary elections.
The 2018 US-China Trade War has attracted worldwide attention as well as much concerns. Currently there have been few researchers that directly explore the reasons why Congress didn’t intervene in Trump’s trade war. This study tries to fill this research gap. Furthermore, it also reveals the profound changes within the Republican Party in recent years, which may help readers gain a better understanding of the current changes in American domestic politics.
Key Words: Trade War, President, Congress, Party Loyalty
[5] 谢 昕
导师：李莉文
中文题目：美国退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”——基于其国内贸易政治视角的分析
英文题目： An Analysis of the Trade Politics Resulted in U.S.’s Withdrawal from the TPP
摘要
2017 年 1 月 23 日,在其就任后的第一个工作日,美国现任总统特朗普签署行政 命令,正式宣布美国永久退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP),转为寻求注重“一对 一”的双边贸易协定谈判。对于这一贸易政策的适时分析对于理解美国的贸易制定体 系具有现实意义。基于此,本文主要围绕以下问题展开研究:美国的贸易政治是如何 导致美国最终退出了 TPP?
贸易政策制定在美国国内层面具体表现为“行政-立法”两大部门的互动和博弈, 总统在贸易领域的权力分享施加了对贸易政策走向的行政影响,同时,由于美国处于 “弱国家、强社会”制度结构下,因此贸易政策制定的过程中会不断面临来自国内社会 的各种压力与挑战,而权力系统分散的国会则反应出国内社会各股竞争势力的力量关 系演变。美国在贸易领域的表现和政策,在一定程度上固然是贸易经济的集中反映, 但究其实质仍然是国内政治的重要内容,是美国贸易政策决策体系在不同的历史时期 和不同的背景下的反应。
本文主要关注贸易政策制定的过程,立足于美国国内政治的场域 —— 一是国会 与总统之间的博弈;二是利益集团对贸易政策的影响,结合 TPP 的发展历程概览,对 各利益行为体如何促成最终的结果进行探讨分析。本文通过质性研究方法,论述了以 下内容:美国贸易政策的制定体系是各方利益多重博弈并将其政策需求诉诸于公共权 力机构的制度化体现,利益集团利用自身的实力和资源参与其中。
TPP 作为奥巴马“重返亚太”外交政策的核心,一开始得到了国会共和党的支持, 但却引起了民主党的党内分歧,两大部门的博弈状态集中体现在了 2015 年的延长“贸 易促进权”授权法案中。该方案历经两院的两次投票,最终以参众两院大多数通过了 奥巴马的请求,他得以加速谈判进程,于 2015 年完成了贸易磋商并在 2016 年初签订 了 TPP。然而,2015 草签后公布的协定条款引起了很大争议。TPP 被拖入了 2016 年 大选,两党的总统候选人均表示反对 TPP,继而持续发酵了 TPP 在政治讨论的争议 性。国会与奥巴马政府出现分歧,因政治敏感和压力,多数国会议员出于争取选区连 任的目的,多不愿对 TPP 公开表明立场,导致 TPP 陷入一个僵局。
尽管奥巴马和相关的利益集团一再努力,国会并不愿意对 TPP 进行批准程序的 投票,这给予了特朗普的政策决定和实施以更小的阻力。在国会与行政部门的博弈中, 虽然反对派与支持 TPP 利益集团在政治献金及游说投入上实力相差悬殊,但劳工组 织、激进主义(环保、人权等)团体的抗议和政治捐献起到了一定的影响。但更为关 键的是跨国制药利益集团的作用,使得国会关键领导者在 TPP 的决定上态度发生转 变,要求奥巴马就相关条款重新谈判,奥巴马进退两难。特朗普迎合了大多数因受贸 易冲击有保护主义倾向选民的政治诉求当选为总统并履行了他的竞选承诺,宣布退出TPP。
本文研究分析后认为,美国退出 TPP 这一结果是美国国内权力机构方与国内利益团体之间相互作用的产物,反映了不同参与行为体之间政治力量的变化,各利益团 体的博弈和诉求在其宪政“分立-制衡”的体制设计内得到充分体现。
关键字:美国贸易政策;“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”;特朗普;贸易政治
Abstract
On Jan. 23rd, 2017, Trump's first day in office, signed an executive order and officially withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal, shifting to seek bilateral trade talks. a timely analysis of this policy outcome bears significance to better understand U.S. trade policymaking. Regarding that, this thesis is set out to address this question: how trade politics resulted in U.S.’s retreat from TPP.
Trade policymaking is a significant point of Congressional-executive’s interaction and competition. The President’s authority delegated by Congress leaves executive footprints on trade policy preferences. Meanwhile, as U.S. is a “strong society and weak state” under the structure of separated powers, trade policymaking is consistency susceptible to and challenged by different forces, of which their shifting powers are reflected in the decentralized Congress.
Though trade policies are centered on trade and economy issues, in essence, it is more of U.S. trade policymaking system’s responses in different periods of time and under varying contexts. Placed in the scope of U.S. trade politics, this thesis focuses on the processes of trade policymaking: the legislative-executive interaction and interest groups’ influence on trade policy decisions. In a revisit to TPP’s negotiation timeline, it attempts to perform an analysis of how different actors contributed to the final outcome.
In a qualitative inquiry, this paper argues that trade policymaking is an institutionalized process that involves various interest stakeholders and engages governmental branches. Interest groups weigh in on the process with its strengths and resources.
It constructs a narrative for an explanation of the trade politics in TPP: as the bedrock of Obama’s “pivot-to-Asia”, TPP was originally backed by Congressional republicans but stirred an intra-party split in Dems. The 2015 TPA renewal witnessed a confrontation between the two branches. Yet, Obama was granted the authority after two rounds of votes with majority from the two houses voting “Yes” to cooperate with Obama. The TPP negotiations were expedited and concluded in 2015 and Obama signed it with other trading partners in early 2016.
However, the deal became contentious as many expressed concerns over its provisions. It had to sail through the 2016 election, in which presidential candidates vocally opposed it across party lines and dragged it to the center of public debates. A rift emerged as Congress members, sensitive to trade politics in election, took a step back, not wanting any public association with the deal in order to win re-election endorsement in their constituencies, which led up to a stalemate. Despite Obama’s and other business groups’ efforts, Congress didn’t intend to call a vote for TPP’s ratification, thus rendering it much feasible in procedures for Trump to make a move on it.
During the competition between Congress and the White House, labor unions and activist groups’ protests and campaign contributions impacted the process even though they were not in an advantageous side when comparing their contributions and lobbying expenditures with those of pro-TPP interest groups. A more vital role was multinational pharmaceutical companies and interests, which switched key Congressmen’s position. They pressed Obama for reopening TPP trade talks and handled him a dilemma. Trump succeeded by capitalizing one the public sentiment and fulfilled his campaign pledge.
The analysis argues that U.S.’s withdrawal is resulted from an interaction of governmental agents and stakeholders and the shifting power relations. The appeals of different interest parties are translated into the “Check-and-Balance” system.
Keywords: Trade policymaking; TPP; Trump; Trade politics
[6] 颜昱晔
导师：李莉文
中文题目：奥巴马任期内中美双边投资协定(BIT) 谈判的双层分析
外文题目： Two-level Analysis of the U.S.-China Bilateral Investment
Treaty (BIT) Negotiations in the Obama Administration
摘要
中美双边投资协定(BIT),是目前我国最高标准的双边投资协定。中美 BIT 谈判 历时九年,曾取得突破性进展,但为何曲折重重,未能在奥巴马任期内完成?罗伯 特·普特南的“双层博弈”理论和海伦·米尔纳在此基础上发展的国内政治理论为我 们分析 BIT 谈判提供了独特的框架。普特南认为,任何国家在参与国际谈判时都会面 临国际和国内两层博弈,谈判主体在国际上需与其他国家进行利益考量,同时国内不 同政治力量的博弈影响着其对外政策和立场,这一过程是相互渗透影响的动态过程, 也直接影响着国际谈判的结果。“双层博弈”理论的核心概念是“获胜集合”,也就是 指国内层次的选民对国际层次达成协议所投赞成票的集合。海伦·米尔纳在双层博弈 的基础上,通过对国内行为体的政策偏好、国内政治制度以及信息水平的分析,来解 释国内政治博弈对国际合作的影响,强调国内政治过程决定了国际合作的可能性和结果。
本文借助 “双层博弈”理论分析奥巴马任期内中美 BIT 谈判面临的挑战,从美 国政府的视角阐释国际和美国国内的两层博弈。本文主要采用了文本分析的方法来阐 述不同集团的主张。本文搜集的第一手资料有相关人士的演讲和采访文字稿,包括总 统、贸易代表、国会议员、和利益集团代表等。其他官方资料包括宪法、法案文本, 贸易投资数据、游说金额数据,国会和利益集团的听证会证词、发布的报告等。第二 手资料包括学者评论和媒体报道。
本文国际层面的讨论分析了中美双方在 BIT 谈判中面临的共同利益和利益冲突, 谈判前期的双方的努力,和谈判后期的重大分歧。共同利益将中美两国带入 BIT 谈 判,双方在谈判前期通过范本修订和国内改革推动进展。然而,到了谈判后期,中美 两国在投资议题上产生重大的利益分歧,停留在未定的负面清单阶段,“获胜集合” 无法达成。美方认为,中国很多行业不对外国投资开放,更阻止外资企业持有多数股 权并真正接管,因此希望看到一个更短的负面清单。中国希望美国提高国家安全审查 的透明度和公平性,反对以“国家安全审查”为由实行投资保护与歧视行为。因为短 期内大量缩短负面清单(等同于对外资开放大量领域)势必引起中国国内的大规模改 革,中方尚未做好参照美方标准的准备;同时美方也未曾就中方最关心的安全审查问 题给以明确交代,造成了谈判停滞的主要原因。
国内层面的讨论分析了美国国内三组行为体的权力分配和政策偏好。这三组影响着国际谈判的结果的国内行为体分别是行政机构、立法机构和利益集团。奥巴马团队 追求“公平的自由贸易”,但坚持美国在制定国际经济秩序中的领导地位,这使得美 国在谈判中难以做出更多让步。奥巴马任期内的国会属于分治政府,两次中期选举之 后共和党占据主要席位,使得总统的提议更加难以通过。民主党内部也有和总统不和 的声音。国会中保护主义倾向的议员以国家安全和失业率为由反对中美 BIT 的达成。 尽管以金融机构和农业团体为首的利益集团是 BIT 的支持者,但 BIT 反对者在向美 国政府游说的花费和参与度上占据优势。谈判后期基本只有投资银行高盛是中美 BIT 的背书人;农业集团因在对华农产品出口中足够获利,对投资协定游说力度不强。以 制造业、能源产业和科技产业为首的利益集团忌惮中国同行的竞争优势,积极参加听 证会并向社会发布报告,反对中美双向开放资本市场,在奥巴马任期内花费的游说总 金额位居前列。
研究结果表明,第一,国际谈判层面的最大分歧在于,中方负面清单较长(开放 投资领域较少),美方未就安全审查问题做出回应。从美国的角度讲,这两大分歧根 植于美国国内政治权力的分配、国内行为体的偏好和不同主张之间的较量。第二,因 为中方的国内经济改革现状无法给出让美方满意的负面清单,所以美国国内集团认为 自己无法从 BIT 中获益,从而降低了“未达成协议”的成本。美方在审查问题上的沉 默也源自国内集团以失业率和国家安全为由的反对。奥巴马团队作为谈判代理人,视 中国为竞争者,对中国的政治不信任、国内分治政府和利益集团强势的反对让他难以 做出更多让步,因而谈判就此搁置。
尽管中美 BIT 谈判历经多年仍未谈成,但将来也许大有可期。如果说中国加入 WTO 是为了商品更好地流通入世,中美 BIT 谈判的意义则相当于资本“入世”,将会 对两国经贸关系及全球经贸格局造成重要影响。本文从美国政府的政策角度出发,通 过双层分析来展现中美 BIT 谈判中复杂的利益纠葛和政治考量,深入探讨美国国内 国际双重力量的影响。
关键词:BIT,双边投资,中美,获胜集合,双层博弈
Abstract
The U.S.-China BIT (Bilateral Investment Treaty) represents the highest level of BIT for China. The negotiations have gone through nine years from 2008 to 2016. Although the U.S.-China BIT negotiations have gained some progress in the Obama administration, what prevented the U.S. from finishing the BIT negotiations with China during that period?
Robert Putnam’s “two-level game theory” and Helen Milner’s theory of domestic politics provide a clear model for analyzing the challenges in the U.S.-China BIT negotiations. Putnam believes that in any international negotiations the national leader is involved in a two-level game simultaneously. The national leader seeks to reach an agreement with other international actors in the international level (Level I), and he also needs to persuade domestic constituents to approve of the ratification of this agreement (Level II). He identifies the intersection of the two levels that can lead to an agreement as “win-set”. Based on Putnam’s two-level game theory, Helen Milner specifically explains how domestic forces shape the international outcomes. Milner identifies three sets of actors in domestic politics: the executive branch, the legislature, and societal interest groups.
Focusing on the U.S. perspective, this paper discusses the challenges that prevented the BIT negotiations from being concluded in two levels as well as the interaction between international negotiations and U.S. domestic politics. Textual analysis of the related materials is applied to this research. The first-hand materials include the speeches, transcripts of interviews, books, statements, and remarks from relevant persons, including the President, trade representatives, congressmen, interest group leaders, etc. Official documents such as the Constitution, legislative bills and announcements published by the U.S. government and the Chinese government are also discussed. This paper collects relevant data on trade and investment and spending on lobbying. Testimony on public hearings and reports issued by Congress and firms are also used. Second-hand materials include news reports and reviews published by experts and media.
The discussion of the international level analyzes the common interests and conflicting interests between the U.S. and China. At the preliminary stage, common interests bring the U.S. and China into BIT negotiations. The vision of an open investment relationship motivates them to make changes for the advancement of negotiations. China sets up pilot free trade zones and releases a series revised laws and regulation on the management of FDI and the U.S. government releases the new model BIT to fit in the new situation of U.S.- China BIT negotiations. However, the win-sets for the U.S. and China cannot be achieved because of the “uncompromised” sticking point in the later period. For China, a negative list short enough to satisfy U.S. expectations requires a reform of domestic laws and regulations on a large scale, which undermines the Chinese government’s autonomy in domestic economic reform. For the U.S., national security concerns and political distrust prevents the U.S. government from addressing the strict scrutiny of Chinese FDI in the U.S. When the negotiations enter into the later period, no successful compromise was made to solve the cores issues, thus the negotiations got stuck.
The discussion on the national level analyzes the distribution of power, coalition, and policy preferences of the three sets of domestic actors, including the executive branch, the legislature, and interest groups. The executive branch holds the most open-minded attitude toward China among domestic actors, but its adherence to global leadership and political distrust in China kind of weakens its willingness to make compromises in the U.S.-China BIT negotiations. Divided coalition in the legislature makes the U.S.-China BIT less likely to be ratified. The Democratic President and his fellow Democrats encountered their biggest losses in the House seats in both 2010 and 2014 midterm election turnouts. President Obama even faces disagreement from his fellow Democrats on trade issues. In terms of the involvement and monetary spending on government lobbying, pro-BIT interest groups are overshadowed by anti-BIT interest groups. At the later stage of negotiations, only Goldman Sachs, a financial group, holds on to lobbying for U.S.-China BIT. Other supporters such as agricultural groups do not express too many aspirations for an agreement since they can make enough incomes from exports on agricultural goods. Protectionist interest groups rank high on the total spending of government lobbying, with energy, manufacturing, and high- tech industries always on the list of top 10. With respect to the distribution of information, they actively participate in public hearings and issue reports to articulate their oppositions and to provide information for Congress with an aim to prevent the achievement of U.S.- China BIT.
The research findings show that the largest divergences of the U.S.-China BIT lie in China’s long negative list and no response from the U.S. on the scrutiny issue, which are deeply rooted in the power distribution and policy preferences of domestic actors. Besides, China cannot give the U.S. a satisfactory negative list, which means no significant benefits for domestic groups, thus reducing the cost of “no BIT”. The U.S.’s silence on the scrutiny issues originates from domestic oppositions based on the unemployment rate and national security concerns. As the chief negotiator, Obama’s team cannot make more compromises at the international table because of its political distrust in China, divided coalition in Congress and strong oppositions from protectionist interest groups. Therefore the U.S.- China BIT was not achieved in the Obama administration.
Although the U.S.-China BIT negotiations were not finished, it may be resumed in the future. The significance of the U.S.-China BIT is no less than that of China’s entry into the WTO. From the perspective of the U.S., this paper demonstrates the interactions among different parties in the U.S.-China BIT negotiations.
Key Words: BIT, the U.S., China, Win-set, Two-level Game
[7] 段捷
导师：梅仁毅
中文题目：美国华裔科学家在中国改革开放初期的作用
英文题目：The Role of Chinese American Scientists in China’s Early Reform & Opening-Up
摘要
1972年，尼克松访华，这次破冰之旅开启了中国对外交往的新时代。中美关系回暖不仅增进了中国与发达国家的交流，也为中国带来了发展机遇。两国之间的互动自此活跃起来，特别是在科技领域。有些研究认为，美国华裔学者和科学家在改善双边科技交流方面起到了关键作用。有些研究强调，这些美国华裔科学家作为非官方大使加强了两国之间的纽带和友谊；有些则认为华裔科学家在跨文化交流中扮演着“说客”的角色。但是，这些相关文献并没有详细阐明在中国决定实施改革开放的关键时期，美籍华裔科学家发挥了怎样的作用，是什么原因让这些科学家不辞辛劳，奔波于中美两国之间，热情帮助中国提高科技、教育水平，推动中国迈向世界舞台。因此, 本文以10位美国华裔科学家为典型案例，检视在中国改革开放初期，华裔科学家对科教政策的制定和人才培养所作出的具体贡献及其背后的动因。
上世纪70年代，尤其是经历了国内动荡和国际封锁后，中国意识到科技人才的短缺是其所面临的最大困境。只有变革科学、技术和教育才能从根本上改变中国的面貌。在中美两国的交流中，中国的决策者看到了中国同发达国家之间的巨大差距。谁会帮助中国缩小差距并将高新科技知识与技能引入中国？掌握先进科技知识的海外科学家无疑是最合适的人选。中美两国关系的解冻推动了两国之间的科技交流，美国华裔科学家助力中国科技发展成为历史必然。而且，在爱国主义和中国儒家传统思想的感召下，他们愿意做这样的事。作为传统文化和全球先进科技知识的饱学之士，华裔美国科学家为中国改革开放初期科学、技术和教育政策的制定做出了突出的贡献，他们帮助中国走上科教兴国之路。
本文采用定性研究方法，基于跨国主义、决策理论，从个人层面论述美国华裔科学家在中国改革开放初期对科教领域所做的贡献。本文选取10位美国华裔科学家为研究对象，梳理并分析了他们在科技人才培养、教育及帮助中国科技人才走向世界的具体作为。此外，该论文运用大量原始文献，如文集，回忆录，传记，访谈，政策报告等，从顶层决策和美籍华裔科学家的特点切入，探究他们行动背后的原因。
跨国主义理论作为研究以移民为主体的跨国、跨文化现象的重要理论框架，如今越来越多地运用于民族性、跨文化融入与适应、跨国流动等现象的研究。全球化是导致跨国主义发生的重要社会背景。在科技引领全球发展方向的时代，华裔科学家的跨国主义是在跨国身份、活动和关系网络相互作用的基础上，通过科技知识的国际化形成的。他们在不同的经济、社会和文化体系中推动了科技事业的发展。因此，借助跨国主义理论探究美国华裔科学家对中国科技、人才、教育的贡献有一定的启示意义。此外，大多数决策理论认为，任何决策都与环境、分析、选择和评估密切相关。这也对本文分析在改革开放初期，中国高层采纳美国华裔科学家对中国科教发展的建议背后的原因，以及美国华裔科学家竭力帮助中国发展科教事业的动因具有一定的借鉴意义。
本文总结出美籍华裔科学家在中国改革开放初期不仅推动了中国与美国及世界其他国家的学术交流，还对中国的科技、教育、人才培养做出重大贡献。中国大陆经历了十年文化大革命的浩劫后，中国领导人已经认识到，这一时期积贫积弱的中国要想发展经济、增强国力，不仅需要大批的资源、资金，更需要大批受过高等教育的人才。特别是在邓小平访美后，中国的决策者意识到科学技术对一个国家建设的重要性。于是，决定花费巨额资源培养自己的人才。恰好在此刻，美籍华裔科学家为中国带来了国外先进的教育理念和科技资源，这正好符合中国领导层的意愿，紧接着，各种人才培训计划和项目迅速制定并落实。自此开启了中国科技、教育改革的序幕。如今，中国科技不断提高，科研环境日益完善，越来越多的海外优秀学子归国创业，为中国创新发展注入新的动力。本文还认为，正是在一些美籍华裔科学家的影响或引荐下，许多在改革开放初期去美国学习深造并成为业界翘楚的中国留学生，如今纷纷回到中国，开创科技前沿，推动创新教育，助力中国复兴之梦。可以说，美籍华裔科学家在帮助中国人才走出去和引进来上都做出了重要贡献。2018年是中国改革开放四十周年，科教兴国、人才强国战略是其重要内容，研究美籍华裔科学家在改革开放初期对中国科教事业发展所起的重要作用具有历史与现实双重意义。
关键词：美籍华裔科学家，中国改革开放初期，科教政策，人才培养
Abstract
In 1972, Nixon’s icebreaking trip to China opened up a new era of mutual relationship, increased contacts between China and the developed countries, which brought opportunities for China’s development. Transnational movements of the two countries since then became active, and exchanges in many walks of life multiplied, especially in science and technology. Based on previous studies, the Chinese American scholars and scientists played a crucial role in promoting exchanges in the realm of science and technology on both sides. Some of the studies emphasized that the Chinese American Scientists (CASs) served as “nongovernmental diplomats” in enhancing ties and friendship between the two countries. Others tend to hold that the CASs played a “strategic role” in cross-cultural communications as they joined the persuasive forces in opening up China. However, the available literatures have failed to elucidate what role the CASs played in the critical period of China’s decision to implement the reform, or what motivated the CASs to tirelessly rush between the United States and China, to enthusiastically help China improve science，technology and education, and to push China onto the world stage. To fill the gap, this paper will examine the specific contributions and motivations of the CASs in science and education policies, and talents cultivation during China’s early reform and opening-up through typical cases of ten eminent CASs.
Since the 1970s, after suffering internal difficulties and international isolation, the Chinese decision-makers were clearly aware that the shortage of technology and talents was the most frustrating situation China was confronted with. Only science, technology and education could make the country achieve a historic transformation. As exchanges between China and the United States gradually increased, the decision-makers saw a huge gap remained between China and the developed countries. Who could and would help China narrow the gap and adapt high-technology to China’s situation? Overseas scientists with advanced scientific knowledge were the first priority. Meanwhile, just then, the melting relations between China and the United States greatly facilitated science and technology contacts between them. The CASs would be in the right position to assist China’s scientific and technological future. Most importantly, they were willing to do it on the basis of patriotism and traditional spirit of mission among the Chinese intellectuals. Being well-versed in both cultures and globally advanced sci-tech knowledges and education philosophy, the CASs grasped the unique opportunity to play pivotal roles in promoting science, technology and education policymaking, and finally assisted China on the way to revitalizing itself through science and education.
This study adopts a qualitative approach, under the framework of transnationalism and decision-making theory, to discuss the contributions of CASs to China’s science, technology and education at the early period of the reform and opening-up. It selected ten top-notch CASs and analyzed their specific contributions in aspects of Chinese talents training, Chinese education and helping China go global. Moreover, the thesis uses amounts of primary sources, including essay collections, biographies, interviews, documents and reports, to explore the motivations behind the movements of the Chinese top leaders and the CASs.
Transnationalism is an important theoretical framework to study the transnational and intercultural phenomena among immigrants. It has increasingly applied to nationality, intercultural integration and adaptation, transnational mobility and so on. Modern transnationalism is considered to take place within the context of globalization. In the era of science and technology leading the direction of global progress, the CASs’ transnationalism is shaped through the internationalization of scientific and technological knowledge on the basis of the interaction of transnational identity, activities and relationship networks. They help advance science and technology development in different economic, social and cultural systems. In this way, transnationalism is helpful to explore the CASs’ contributions to China’s S&T, talents nurture and education. Besides, according to decision theory, most of the decision-making models are related to such elements as contexts, analysis, choice and evaluation. With the decision theory, the paper will discuss the reasons that the Chinese leaders follow the suggestions of the CASs concerning China’s science and education, as well as the motivation of the CASs to assist China’s science and education development.
This paper concludes that the CASs not simply strengthened China’s academic links with the United States and the rest of the world, but made meaningful contributions to China’s S&T, education and talents cultivation. The Chinese leaders recognized that the country required a large pool of talents as well as mounts of resources and capital to its development after suffering decades of domestic turmoil. Deng Xiaoping’s visit to the U.S., in particular, strengthened his resolution to center on science and technology, and to develop local talents with all possible resources. The CASs, at the same time, brought China advanced education idea and S&T information from abroad, which happened to share the same view with the Chinese top leaders. A variety of talents training and science programs were followed. China opened a new chapter of its reform on science, technology and education. Nowadays, China’s science and technology continues to improve, and the research environment becomes better so that more and more excellent overseas Chinese students return to China. They instill fresh vitality to China’s innovation and progress. More significantly, under the influence or recommendation of some CASs, many Chinese students who once went to study in the U.S. during China’s early reform and opening-up and became top-notch talents in their own fields, have now returned to China. They create science frontier, promote innovative education and help realize China’s great dream of rejuvenation. It can be said, the CASs did play a significant role in China’s brain outflow and inflow. Also, in 2018, it marks the 40th anniversary of China’s reform and opening up, and the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education is an important part of the reform policy. The study of the role played by the CASs in China’s early reform and opening up has both historical and realistic significance.
Key Words: Chinese American Scientists, China’s Early Reform & Opening up, Science, and education policies, Talents Cultivation
[8] 陈悦
导师：付美榕
中文题目：留美外交家的跨文化身份与职业生涯 (1911-1949)
英文题目：The Intercultural Identity and Career Life of U.S-Educated Chinese Diplomats (1911-1949)
摘要
2019 正值五四运动的第一百周年。一个世纪前,中国外交家在巴黎和会上首次对 西方列强说“不”,此次外交失败触发了国内爆发五四运动。历经百年沧桑,中国已经成 为国际舞台上拥有强大影响力的外交大国。然而,“忘记历史意味着背叛”,今天我们仍 需回顾那段中国人被认为是“东亚病夫”,中国遭受西方列强欺压的外交历史。中华民国 时期是中国外交的一个重要历史阶段,期间中国由列强侵占的半殖民地一跃成为强国之 一,恢复了晚清严重受损的主权。这样的外交成就与一群拥有美国教育背景的职业外交 家们密不可分,如顾维钧,颜惠庆,施肇基等。在中国内忧外患的动荡时期,他们凭借 流利的英语,在国际法,国际政治等方面所受的职业训练和对西方外交的熟悉,在国际 舞台上崭露头角。然而,外交官的职业和西化的举止使公众对他们的品格产生怀疑,对 他们的历史评价也是褒贬不一。他们常常被抨击为“卖国贼”,或沦为外交失败的替罪羊。 考虑到这一历史时期的重要性,他们的群体身份和个体差异是一个值得研究的课题。再 者,研究中国处在不利地位时期的外交实践能够给新时期的中国外交家们以启示。因此, 本文旨在研究拥有留美背景的外交家在职业生涯中所展示的跨文化身份,并探索影响其 跨文化身份形成的因素。
本文采用定性研究方法。选取了 15 名拥有留美背景的外交家作为样本。数据资料 要来源于十五位外交家的自传、口述史料、其他传记等相关历史文献,采用主题法与文 本分析法进行梳理归类,在布朗芬布伦纳提出的 PPCT 理论框架下进行分析。将文化身 份的形成作为一个动态过程进行分析,探讨哪些因素参与到了样本外交家文化身份的社 会构建。本文选取的样本外交官在 1911 年至 1949 年期间皆为外交部高级官员,现有的 相关研究集中于他们的个人经历和历史贡献,在他们的群体文化身份方面留下了空白。 因此,本文的研究目的在于分析留美外交官的跨文化身份是如何形成,在职业身涯中怎 样表现,以及对他们外交生涯产生怎样的影响。这些问题的探讨,能够帮助刻画这一时 期留美外交家的群体印象,并且对未来外交人才的培养具有参考价值。
本文研究发现,15 名外交官的跨文化身份体现在“外交家职业精神”,“西方化”和“国 家主义”的三个方面。通过分析样本的外交生涯,发现留美外交家通过三种角色身份对 国家做出了贡献,分别是:“国家利益的捍卫者”,“国际舞台上的代表者”和“反对日本 侵略的爱国者”。他们的“西方化”主要表现在他们的西化举止以及同英美国家,以英美为主导的国际组织的亲密关系。而他们的“国家主义”集中体现在他们的外交目标。出于 “外交家职业精神”,他们在维护国家利益的方法上他们倾向于渐进主义方法,并且不介 意短暂的让步,这与公众的期望有所出入。
三个因素促成了留美外交家的跨文化身份形成:家庭背景,教育经历和历史背景。 家庭背景的影响主要体现在经济支持,对西方文化的态度以及对教育的重视。教育经历 分为在国内接受的传统教育和新学教育以及在美国接受的高等教育。最后,留美外交家 所处的时代,中国正经历着外交现代化迅速发展的历史进程。同时振兴中华,抗日救亡 的爱国主义精神成为了时代精神。
总而言之,本文发现样本外交家的跨文化经历给他们的职业生涯留下了永久性的印 记。他们的跨文化身份正是当时中国现代化进程的必需品,也是他们常常被误解的原因。 在整体上,他们是一群为中华崛起而奋斗的爱国者。
关键字:留美外交家 职业生涯 跨文化身份 跨文化经历
Abstract
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the May 4th Movement. A century ago, Chinese diplomats said “no” to the Western Powers for the first time at the Paris Conference. This diplomatic failure triggered the outburst of the May 4th Movement. Having gone through a century of vicissitudes, China now becomes a strong country with great diplomatic influence on the international stage. However, “to forget history means betrayal”, it is necessary to look back upon China’s modern diplomacy when China was regarded as the “sick man of East Asia” and oppressed and humiliated by Western powers. The Republican era is an important stage for Chinese diplomacy, during which China moved from being a semi-colony of the Great Powers to being a great power itself, recovering the sovereignty and autonomy that had been so severely jeopardized in the latter decades of the Qing dynasty. The diplomatic accomplishment is inseparable with the efforts of a group of professional diplomats who have U.S. education background, such as V. K. Wellington Koo (Gu Weijun), Yan Huiqing and Sao-ke Alfred Sze (Shi Zhaoji). With their proficiency in English, professional training in international law, politics etc. and familiarity with Western diplomacy, they surged up on international stage in a torrent era when China was weak inside and facing threats from outside. However, their profession as diplomats and westernized disposition raised public suspicions on their character. Historical evaluation on them as a group is often mixed with compliments and criticism. They were at times criticized as traitor and blamed as scapegoat for diplomatic setbacks. Given the significance of this historical period, their group identity and individual difference are worth exploring. Besides, a study on Chinese diplomatic practice conducted from a disadvantageous position provides insights to Chinese diplomats in this new era. Therefore, this thesis aims to examine the intercultural identities of the U.S-educated Chinese diplomats (USECDs) demonstrated in their professional trajectory and to probe into the formation of their intercultural identity.
This thesis applies qualitative method on a sample of 15 USECDs. Autobiographies, biographies, and oral historical records of the 15 diplomats are thematically analyzed under the theoretical framework of Bronfenbrenner's Process–Person–Context–Time Model. The formation of intercultural identity is analyzed as a dynamic process to figure out the factors involved in its social construction. The sample USECDs were high-ranking officials in the Foreign Ministry from 1911 to 1949, present studies on them are confined to their personal experience and historical contribution, thus leave a research gap on their group cultural identity. Therefore, this research aims to analyze how does their intercultural identity form, how does it reflect in their professional trajectory and what influence does it wave on their diplomatic career. The investigation on these questions helps to draw a silhouette of the USECDs group in this historical period. Besides, it is of referential value to the cultivation of diplomatic talents in future.
This research finds that the intercultural identity of USECDs’ is presented through three aspects: diplomatic professionalism, westernization and nationalism. Analyzing the professional trajectories of 15 sample diplomats, they contributed to the country as they undertook three different roles: fighters for national interest, representatives on international stage and patriots against Japanese aggression. Westernization is revealed in their western manner and affiliation with Anglo-American countries and institutions. Meanwhile, nationalism is best manifested in their diplomatic goals. Out of diplomatic professionalism, their means is different from the public expectations, they prefer gradual solution and do not mind temporary concessions.
Three factors contribute to the intercultural identity formation of USECD, including family background, education experience and historic background. The influence of family background reflects in economic support, attitudes towards western culture and emphasis on education. Educations experience includes traditional education and new-style education received in China and higher education received in the U.S. Finally, USECDs lived in a time when China witnessed the rapid process of diplomatic modernization. Meanwhile, patriotic spirit of revitalizing the Chinese nation and saving China from the Japanese aggression became zeitgeist.
To conclude, this thesis finds that USECDs’ cross-cultural experiences left permanent marks on their professional trajectories. Their intercultural identity is a necessity for promoting China’s modernization but also the reason why the public misunderstood them at times. In all, they were patriots who served for the glorious cause of China’s rise on the frontier of diplomacy.
Key Words: U.S-educated Chinese Diplomats (USECDs), Professional Trajectory; Intercultural Identity, Cross-cultural Experience
[9] 赵子琦
导师：宋颖
中文题目：主流媒体的社交媒体帐户对框架理论的运用: 基于纽约时报的官方推特帐户对#我也是运动的报道研究
英文题目：An Investigation of the Employment of Framing Theory by Mainstream Social Media: A Case Study on Tweets from @nytimes Related to #metoo Movement
摘要
2017 年 10 月 15 日,美国女演员 Alyssa Milano 的一条带有“#我也是”的 推特引起了全世界的关注。在她的推文中,“#我也是”被用来鼓励性骚扰受害 者分享他们的故事,以便向公众展示这个问题的严重程度和普遍程度,尤其是工 作场所的性骚扰问题。此推文一出,立马得到了众多好莱坞女演员的回应, Gwyneth Kate Paltrow, Ashley Judd, Jennifer Lawrence, and Uma Thurman 都在自己的推特账号中表达了对性骚扰事件的不满。事实上,早在 2006 年,美 国社会活动家Tarana Burke就已经使用“我也是”这一短语来表达对性骚扰受 害者的同情,并希望透过分享受侵犯的经历还提醒公众这一问题的严重性。另外, 在艾莉莎的帖子发布的前十天,“纽约时报”不仅在其官方网站上,而且在其推 特官方帐号@nytimes 上发表了数篇文章,以及一系列报道,用来揭露对 Harvey Weinstein 不恰当的性行为的指控。
尽管@nytimes 将女性在工作场所中遭受的性侵犯问题带到公共生活中,但 却是Alyssa Milano的推文激发了在线的#metoo社会运动,并在很大程度上确 定了此次运动的性质。在这种情况下,很难说谁为谁设定议程。 1972 年创立的 传统议程设置理论,强调大众传媒对公众舆论的影响,无法完全解释公民记者时 代的推特现象。此项研究借鉴了议程设置理论的观点,分析了主流媒体尤其是纽 约时报如何利用他们的社交媒体平台来影响公众舆论,更具体地说,是@nytimes 如何使用言语来参与并影响#我也是运动。
这项研究采用议程设置理论,特别是框架作为理论基础,研究纽约时报的社 交媒体帐户,特别是@nytimes,如何看待#我也是运动,希望增强对该理论的理 解以及提高公众媒体影响的意识。本研究对#我也是运动进行了纵向研究,其中 “纽约时报”在其最初的传播中发挥了至关重要的作用。本研究收集了 2017 年 10 月 5 日至 2018 年 1 月 8 日纽约时报官方推特帐号的所有推文,并存储在 word 文档中。然后进行定量分析从而找出#我也是相关推文的频率和百分比。接下来 对这些相关推文进行主题分析,以便了解@nytimes如何用框架理论来定义#我也 是这场社会运动,并以此来影响公众舆论。最后,作者对推文中最常使用的单词 进行了语义网络分析,从而进一步分析这些词汇之间的联系。
关键字: 社交媒体,主流媒体,推特,议程设置,框架理论,#我也是,主题分析,语义网络分析
Abstract
“Me Too” initiated in 2006 by Tarana Burke, an American social activist, has got worldwide attention since 2017 when American actress Alyssa Milano used this phrase in her tweet to encourage victims of sexual harassment to share their stories so as to reveal to the public the magnitude and prevalence of this problem, especially in the workplace. It was followed by a great number of high-profile posts and responses from American celebrities Gwyneth Kate Paltrow, Ashley Judd, Jennifer Lawrence, and Uma Thurman, and etc. In fact, ten days before Alyssa’s post, the New York Times had published a series of reports exposing allegations against Harvey Weinstein’s inappropriate sexual advances, not only on its official website, but also on its Twitter platform @nytimes, which shared the essence of #metoo movement.
Notwithstanding the fact that @nytimes brought the issue of sexual assault towards women in the workplace to the public life, it was Alyssa Milano’s tweet that motivated the online #metoo campaign and to a great extent defined its nature. In this case, it’s hard to argue who set the agenda for whom. The traditional agenda-setting theory, developed in 1972, with an emphasis on the impact the mass media exerted on the public opinion, cannot totally explain this Twitter phenomenon in the age of citizen journalism. This research borrowed ideas from agenda-setting theory to analyze how mainstream media the New York Times in particular, use their social media platforms to influence the public opinion, more specifically, how @nytimes use words and phrases to participate in the #metoo movement.
Employing agenda-setting, framing in particular, as the theoretical framework, this research investigates how New York Times’ social media account, specifically @nytimes, perceives #metoo movement with the hope of enhancing the knowledge of this theory as well as raising public awareness of media influence. To this end, this research carries out a longitudinal study on #metoo movement in which the New York Times played a crucial role in its initial dissemination. Tweets from @nytimes related to #metoo from October 5th, 2017 to January 8th, 2018 were extracted, collected and stored in a word file. Then a quantitative analysis was conducted to find out the frequency and percentage of #metoo related tweets. A thematic analysis was followed to investigate the frames created by @nytimes to define and possibly shape public perception towards this movement. At last, a semantic network analysis was carried out to examine how the most frequently used words were related to each other.
Key Words: Social Media, Mainstream Media, Twitter, Agenda-Setting, Framing, #metoo, Thematic analysis, Semantic analysis
[10] 熊妍捷
导师：宋颖
中文题目：美古解冻前后古巴的形象塑造:基于《纽约时报》 2013-2016 年新闻报导的内容分析研究
英文题目：Representation of Cuba before and after the Cuban Thaw: A content analysis of The New York Times from 2013 to 2016 with special regard to the media conformity theory
摘要
自 1959 年古巴革命以来,美国和古巴在超过半个世纪中都处于敌对关系;在此期间古 巴及其领导人在美国媒体上的形象一直非常负面,深受意识形态和偏见影响。然而美古关系 在 2014 年 12 月底经历了转折点,美国总统奥巴马和古巴总统卡斯特罗发表联合声明表示 美国和古巴将恢复外交关系。美国外交政策的这一深刻变化可能意味着古巴在美国新闻媒体 中形象的改变。
基于此,本研究选取美古解冻为时间节点,分析了前后两年间(2013 年至 2016 年)《纽 约时报》关于古巴的报道,重点关注美国外交政策转变后古巴在美国媒体中的形象是否发生 了重大变化。研究发现,美国的外交政策确实对新闻媒体报道古巴的方式产生了影响。美古 解冻后,关于古巴的新闻报道数量显著增多、整体基调明显改善,从而构成了更加正面的国 家形象。报道古巴所使用的主题框架也发生了显著变化,美古解冻前《纽约时报》报道古巴 的主题框架集中在“好人民/坏领袖”和“冲突与对抗”,前者将古巴描述为人权问题严重的 极权主义国家,后者强调古巴对美国国家安全和拉丁美洲稳定的威胁。美国决定与古巴外交 关系正常化并在未来开展双边合作后,《纽约时报》的古巴报道出现了一个新的主题框架“对 话与合作”,将古巴描述为潜在的合作伙伴而不是安全威胁。这个新主题框架在美古解冻后 显著增加,挑战了古巴长期以来在美国新闻媒体上的负面偏见。本研究同时发现,古巴国家 形象在美古关系、国际事务等话题中有显著改善,但在古巴经济政治内务、移民与流亡者等 话题中仍然呈现负面基调,变化较小。
本文的贡献在于拓展了近年来美国媒体对古巴形象塑造的研究,并且有助于加深对美国 外交政策和媒体报道国家形象的关系的理解。
关键词:国家形象,古巴,美古解冻,框架理论,《纽约时报》
Abstract
Ever since the Cuban revolution in 1959, the US and Cuba shared more than half a century’s hostility. For more than five decades, the image of Cuba and its leaders in US media remained tenaciously negative, cloaked with ideological judgments and stereotypes. However, US-Cuba relations witnessed its turning point in December 2014, as Castro and Obama made a joint declaration that the US and Cuba would restore diplomatic ties, ending decades of hostility. This profound change in US foreign policy could suggest a chance for American news media to frame or report on events in Cuba differently.
Under such context, this study examined Cuban stories on The New York Times from 2013 to 2016 (within two years before and after the Cuban thaw) through quantitative content analysis and explored whether the representation of Cuba underwent significant changes after the shift in US foreign policy. The research finds that US foreign policy did have a bearing on the way news media covered Cuba. After the thaw, the significant increase in visibility and valence of Cuban news combined to form a more favorable image of Cuba. Major changes also occurred in terms of prevalent frames. Before the Cuban thaw when the US remained hostile to Cuba, the most visible frames were “good people/bad leader” and “conflict and confrontations”. The former portrayed Cuba as a totalitarian dictatorship that routinely violated human rights, while the latter focused on Cuba’s potential threat to US national interest and Latin-American regional security. After the US decided to normalize diplomatic ties with Cuba and forecasted possible collaboration in future, the island nation was portrayed less as a threat, but more as an equal partner whose partnership with America could benefit both countries. This relatively new frame emerged after the Cuban thaw was a challenge to Cuba’s long-standing stereotypes. This study also found that while Cuba had a more positive image in the coverage on Cuban international issues, and US-Cuban relations, the negative image of Cuba still persisted in some aspects, especially when covering Cuban domestic issues and immigrants/exiles.
This research contributed to extending the study of how Cuba was portrayed on US media after the shift in US foreign policy, and on the influences of foreign policy to the representation of foreign countries.
Keywords: National image, Cuba, US-Cuban thaw, Framing Theory, The New York Times
[11] 杨家宇
导师：张春波
中文题目：推特上的中国形象自塑：新华社渉华推文的话语分析
英文题目：Constructing China’s Image on Twitter: A discursive Analysis of Xinhua News Agency’s Tweets about China
摘要
中国主流媒体正积极寻求媒体融合,特别是在进军和扩张国际市场的过程中。这种实践试图抓住社交媒体这个颇具潜力的大众传播新阵地以重建早已失衡的国际传播秩序。迄今为止,中国三大主流媒体都已在国际知名社交平台上开通了其官方账号。本文选取了新华社的推特官方账号作为研究对象,试图探讨其讲述了什么样的中国故事以及如何讲述的中国故事。
本文以新媒体逻辑为理论基础,梵迪克的批评性话语分析、克雷斯和范洛文的多模 态话语分析为工具,试图回答以下问题:(1)新华社官方推特账号在塑造中国形象的过 程中分别运用了哪些传统媒体逻辑和新媒体逻辑,混合媒体逻辑是如何体现的?(2)在 混合媒体机制下,中国传统媒体话语和国际社交媒体话语有哪些冲突和融合之处?通过探 讨以上问题,本文希望能够为中国主流媒体未来的国际传播策略提供借鉴。本文抽取新华 社官方推特账号发布的 467 篇推文作为样本,从经济、政治、文化和体育、社会、生态以 及高科技这六个方面分析新华社是如何塑造中国形象的。
本文发现新华社的推特账号运营体现了混合媒体逻辑。一方面,新华社将注意力最 大化视为一种新闻价值,试图利用标签这种功能引导信息流、增强信息在同好群体间的传 播。另一方面,新华社不会放弃其作为主流媒体的守门人角色、依旧坚持传统的新闻价值 和准则。在话语策略方面,新华社的选择较为谨慎。在运用或新颖、或传统的方式塑造 “正面的自我”的同时,新华社却较少地描绘“负面的他者”。相较于梵迪克的研究发现,即 在意识形态方阵中媒体通常会塑造一个否定的他者,这一策略实属例外。此外,本文还发 现了中国传统主流媒体与西方新媒体平台话语的冲突与合作。在一些传统媒体经常报道的 领域中,具有中国特色的主流媒体话语依然盛行。但是,新华社官方推特账号也试图迎合 西方社交媒体的话语习惯,试图在一些软新闻中使用更为生动的语言风格,拉近与读者的 距离,传递更多人文情怀和普世价值。此外,新华社也做了一些与传统西方话语抗争的尝 试,意在扭转西方社会对中国某些方面的刻板印象。
为了使中国主流媒体在国际传播中更好地利用社交媒体平台,本文认为新华社应更加深入地开发推特平台的各种功能以增强与其他用户的连接和互动。另外,新华社可以像西方主流媒体一样,先从一些软性新闻或者社会运动入手,逐渐在推文中引用一些用户原创内容。新华社也可以利用社交媒体的即时性进行更多突发事件的报道,也可从对用户感兴趣的内容多开展直播报道这种形式,从而吸引更多用户与之互动,或者提高点击率。与此同时,新华社记者也可以尝试开通个人账号与其官方账号进行互动以促进推文的传播。
关键词:推特;新华社;批判性话语分析;梵迪克;意识形态
Abstract
Chinese mainstream media institutions are launching an enthusiastic pursuit of media convergence particularly in entering and expanding the global market. This effort is widely understood as an attempt to seize the opportunity provided by the social media as a promising field of public communication and thus re-establish the unbalanced international order of media communication. Up to now, China’s three mainstream media have all opened their official accounts on international renown social media platforms. And this thesis intends to conduct a case analysis of Xinhua News Agency’s official account on Twitter to explore how it tells the Chinese stories and what stories has been told there.
This thesis, based on the theory of new media logic, adopts van Dijk’s critical discourse analysis and Kress and van Leeuwen’s visual grammar as analytical tools, tried to answer following questions: (1) What kind of traditional media logic and new media logic are adopted by China Xinhua News in constructing China’s image and how a hybrid media logic is reflected? (2) What kind of cooperation and conflicts between a Chinese traditional media and an international social media platform are reflected in such hybrid media system? and hopefully by exploring the two research questions, this research can cast light on the deliberation of our future international communication strategies. The thesis extracted 467 tweets about China issued by China Xinhua News, official Twitter account of Xinhua News Agency and analyzed how it depicted China’s image from 6 aspects including economy, politics, culture and sports, society, ecology and sci-tech.
This thesis found out a hybrid media logic adopted by China Xinhua News in operating its official Twitter account. On the one hand, China Xinhua News regards attention-drawing as a news value and tries to take advantage of platform algorithms such as hash tag to drive information stream and distribution of information among like-minded people. While on the other, Xinhua News Agency does not abandon its traditional role as gatekeeper and thus still adheres to its traditional practices and norms. Cautious moves are taken in terms of discursive strategies. While taking various conventional and unconventional means to construct a positive self, few of its discourses are depicting a negative other, which is rather exceptional considering van Dijk’s discovery of media institutions’ persistent construction of the ideological square with the other always depicted as negative. The thesis also sees both cooperation and conflict between the discourse of Chinese mainstream media and western social networks. Firstly, discourses with Chinese characteristics still prevail in tweets on fields that were much reported by traditional media. Secondly, China Xinhua News tries to cater to western social media discourses by adopting more vivid language styles in some soft news, in an effort to draw closer distance with audience and covey humanistic feelings and universal values. Last but not least, China Xinhua News also takes innovative attempt to combat against the western discourses in depicting China, trying to reverse their stereotypes against China in some aspects.
And to make better use of social media platform for Chinese mainstream media in international communication, this thesis suggests that Chinese mainstream media needs to make more in-depth use of algorithmic functions of social media platforms to increase connectivity with other users. Besides, the news agency can gradually include user generated content to their tweets, probably beginning from soft news or from news on social movements. It may also take advantage of social media’s instantaneity to make more coverage on breaking news. And live tweets may be more widely adopted in contents that meet audience taste to invite more interactions and increase click rate. Also, journalists of Xinhua News Agency can open their personal Twitter to form an interaction with the organization account, providing another way of promoting tweets sent by China Xinhua News.
Keywords: Twitter, Xinhua News Agency, critical discourse analysis, Van Dijk, ideology
[12] 韩晓文
导师：高蕊
中文题目：谁能成功？探究当下中美民众对社会不平等的认知及其影响因素
英文题目：Who Get Ahead and Who Fall Behind? Structure and Determinants of Public Beliefs About Stratification: A Comparison of the United States and China
摘要
本文关注“公众对社会不平等的认知”这一在社会分层研究中常被忽略却又十分重要的议题，分析当前中美两国公众对社会不平等相关问题的看法及其影响因素。研究提取出“社会不平等认知”中的两个维度作为主要因变量进行考察，分别为公众对绩效分配原则(meritocracy)的认同度，以及对贫困/富有的归因。本文利用2010年美国综合社会调查（General Social Survey）、2016/17年美国皮尤政治调查（Pew Political Survey）及2010年中国家庭追踪调查（China Family Panel Survey）公开数据，借助定量分析方法，对中美公众对社会不平等的认知进行了初步探讨。
研究发现：第一，大部分中美相信教育和个人努力是取得社会成就最重要的影响因素；第二，对于美国社会公平认知的影响因素而言，年轻人、教育程度较高的人群，以及白人更加认同绩效分配原则，更倾向于将贫困的原因归结于个人而非社会。老年人、社会地位及受教育程度较低的少数族裔则更多关注结构性因素的重要影响。对于中国民众而言，除了教育程度越高的群体以及男性更认同绩效分配原则，较多遭受不平等待遇的农村户籍居民也反而更加认同绩效分配原则；第三，其他主要影响因素与种族/户籍因素存在交互作用。例如，教育程度与绩效分配原则认同之间的正向关系仅在白人中存在，教育对少数族裔认知的影响不显著，这体现了少数族裔内部的社会认知一致性；而教育程度对绩效分配原则认同的促进作用则在中国农村户籍居民中更为显著。通过对中美公众对社会不平等认知的比较发现，一方面中美民众都同样认同机会公平原则，赞同绩效分配制度；另一方面，影响因素上的差别也体现了中美对“类别不平等”（种族/户籍）的差异化建构，不同社会群体间的社会信息隔离程度，以及教育对社会意识形塑的区别作用。
关键词：社会不平等认知；绩效分配原则；贫困/富有归因；定量分析；社会调查数据；中美对比
Abstract
The study examines a related but rarely studied issue in social stratification research: how the public believes about social inequality and what determine their beliefs. Two specific dimensions of inequality are chosen as the dependent variable in this study, whether people believe in a meritocratic society and how they would explain the causes of poverty/wealth. The study takes on a comparative perspective to examine the public stratification beliefs in the two largest economies, the United States and China, using national representative data from 2010 General Social Survey, 2016/17 Pew Political Survey of the United States, and 2010 China Family Panel Survey. The descriptive statistics, OLS regressions, and logistic regressions have uncovered several important findings about the structure and determinants of the beliefs.
First, though the two societies have been through increasing social inequality during the decades, people in both countries are still convinced by the dominant ideology of meritocracy, believing in the importance of meritocratic elements in getting ahead in life. Second, for the determinants of the beliefs in the United States, it is shown that young, more educated Whites are more likely to believe in meritocracy and attribute poverty to individual factors. Older, lower class racial minorities, in contrast, are more likely to recognize the importance of non-meritocratic elements and provide a structuralist explanation for being poor/rich. In China, it is the more disadvantaged rural citizens that hold stronger faith in meritocracy. Higher education predicts stronger belief in meritocracy. Women are less likely to endorse meritocratic values. Third, for the variation in determinants by race, the regressions show that in the United States the positive associations between education/political conservatism and belief in meritocracy are unique to Whites, suggesting the cross-class consensus among racial minorities on inequality. However, in China, the positive effects of education on meritocratic beliefs are even stronger for the disadvantaged rural population. The comparison between stratification beliefs in the United States and China reveals the similar dominant meritocratic ideology in two societies on the one hand; on the other hand, it also demonstrates the differential social construction of categorical inequality (race in the US; hukou in China), different level of social and informational segregation related to the two types of social categories, and the nuanced role of education in reaching ideological consistency.
Key Words: Stratification Beliefs; Meritocracy; Causes of Poverty and Wealth; Quantitative Analysis; Social Survey Data; US and China
